Under Obama's iPod Government system, consumers would make their own choices, but the government would clearly lay those choices out. Rather than simply give us options, Obama would give us options we can understand. This approach would change the presentation of several essential consumer decisions, from Medicare prescription drug plans to mortgage terms.
While the feasibility of this plan is questionable--can such complex decisions really be pared down to a version palatable to the every-day decision-maker without bias or oversimplification?--the benefit is pretty clear. Economic theory would argue that making options clearer will necessarily benefit the consumer, as they will be more educated and face less certainty as a result.
Other aspects of Obama's proposal are more controversial, however. Take for instance his plan to shift the default for many programs from opting in to opting out. The most significant manifestation of this plan, should it come to pass, would be the automatic enrollment of all workers in employer-based savings plans. While today workers must actively enroll in such programs, under Obama's plan they would have to (but easily could) actively drop out. Even if the savings plans themselves were no different than today's, the impact would still be remarkable.
In proposing this over-arching approach to decision-making, Obama has relied heavily on his economic advisors. Abandoning one of the most frustrating assumptions of undergraduate economics--that people are rational actors--Obama's team instead pays significant attention to the field of behavioral economics. In this case, their position is based on the empirically-supported "status quo bias" which suggests that people are likely to stick with the default option, whatever that may be. In other words, if people are automatically enrolled in a savings program, they are significantly more likely to stay in it than if they are automatically not. Regardless of the specifics of the options, the consumer's choice is heavily biased towards the default one.
Deemed "libertarian paternalism", this policy simultaneously allows for consumer choice and pushes that choice in the direction Obama prefers. In my opinion, it's a sound policy. Any way you look at it, some option has to take the default place. And, as discussed in class, the option of non-participation is no less neutral than the automatic enrollment one. So, why shouldn't the default option be the one that experts like Obama and his economic advisers recommend? Sure, in some ways this means the government will be making the decision for some consumers (i.e., those who just stick with the default, regardless of what it may be). But economic theory would likely fall apart with them anyways--if they aren't rational, informed consumers, they are unlikely to independently make the optimal choice regardless.
So maybe this is the best of both worlds: let the people who care make their own well-informed decisions and help those that don't by guiding them in the direction you (and your team of economists and experts) think best.
3 comments:
I agree--in the event that there HAS to be default option. People are still given the choice whether to have the savings plan or not and ultimately are not being forced into anything.
However, I suppose that one could first argue for the necessity of a default option in the first place. Is it reasonable to think that employees could be presented with both options and then select one? Perhaps there would be higher costs associated with this.
Another argument might be that while people are still granted the choice between two options, it is likely that a majority of people will not be fully aware of the plan and their ability to opt out. For example, I know most everyone out there has clicked on a "Yes, I agree to the Terms and Conditions" button without fully reading the Terms and Conditions.
However, I do agree with Vera in that Obama's plan enables people to make their own decisions, while a sense of guidance is provided via the default option.
I love the idea, and I hope more things like this keep happening! Obama's main behavioral econ advisor, Thaler, just wrote a book on these ideas, Nudge. I stole it from my dad yesterday and have been reading it all day today; it's incredibly awesome. Thaler (and co-author Cass Sunstein) lay out a series of examples that conclusively show a variety of ways in which people are irrational, and, perhaps more excitingly, how their irrational behavior can be easily and (almost) costlessly fixed through "nudges." Their canonical example of a nudge are these new horizontal painted lines in sharp curves on roads in Chicago - drivers have driven too fast around the curves, ignoring the posted warning signs. With the new lines, however, which get closer and closer together, making the driver feel like she is going faster, the road has become much safer. It's a sweet book and is supposedly Obama's "bible" on this area of policy.
Some of this is awesome, especially the part about making the "optimal" choice in a binary system the default option. In situations where the citizen has an opt in/out option and the clear best choice for 90% of citizens is to opt in, this seems to make all kinds of sense.
I am concerned about the oversimplification of more complex options, however, especially items which are normally provided in the market and benefit from having a many different gradations. Take mortgages, for example. Is Obama really proposing that we present home buyers with 5 simple options to choose to buy their houses? First off, how would this work? The government is not the main source of home loans in this country, and to make it so would project the State's power much farther into the banking system than it is currently.
Okay, assume we solve that problem by somehow mandating that banks provide 5 different mortgage options. Financially literate people might want something different that is more closely tailored to their needs. How do we accommodate them? If we provide THEM with the ability to have more options but don't tell less savvy loan applicants, then we're being exclusive. If we provide everyone with the same wide array of options, we're back where we started.
Altering default binary choices sounds great; like Vera said, something has to be the default and it may as well be the economically sound thing. But simplifying big personal financial decisions, for example, into a few options seems overly paternalistic.
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